| SRI Report; The Battle Over Mobile Platform Software |
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FEBRUARY 24
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The Center of Gravity Shifts: Java Is the Platform to Target
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Handset manufacturers, mobile services, and developers of content and applications face a critical decision: Which handheld software platforms will they support? Some of the choices include recognizable brands -- Microsoft and Palm -- as well as influential names like Blackberry, Java, Qualcomm, and Symbian. Stakes of the decision can be high. So-called network effects of technology and economics tend to support the idea of only a few winners or even a winner-take-all outcome. So making a bad decision can resemble betting on the wrong horse.
A new report from SRI Consulting Business Intelligence (SRIC-BI) -- Programmable Mobile Phones: The Battle over Platform Software --analyzes the struggles between the software firms, the handheld devices such as cell phones and PDAs, and the mobile-service operators.
"The center of gravity for software developers who want to reach users of handheld devices has shifted," says Michael Gold, senior engineer in the Digital Futures Program at SRIC-BI. "In the past, software developers were asking, 'should we target Microsoft, Palm, or Symbian?' Now they are increasingly focusing on Java rather than the other three platforms. With 50 million Java handsets now in circulation worldwide, 2002 Java handset shipments exceeded PDA shipments of the past several years. By end 2003, the size of the market that one can address with Java will still be larger than that of all PDAs and smartphones (such as Nokia Communicator and the Ericsson or Samsung equivalents) together -- even if PDAs and smartphones grow by 100% in units this year (probably an unrealistically high assumption). Java has definitely surpassed the PDA operating systems as he platform to target for the largest mobile audience."
Other notable findings from the report include:
-- Erosion of the vertical industry structure. Any horizontal software platform (including Java) that many services adopt threatens to erode the vertical industry structures that now prevail in cellular industries. Within the mobile communications sector, software platforms may become the battleground of a larger price/performance "war" over customer acquisition. As mobile industries consolidate, financial pressures may cause the most vulnerable industry participants to declare such a war.
-- Microsoft in check. Within the mobile communications sector, Microsoft will likely be checkmated by its competitors as well as by mobile operators and content companies that don't want to allow Microsoft to become a gatekeeper.
-- Difficulties about digital-rights management (DRM). Expectations of large markets for DRM-based content distribution will affect many companies' choice of technologies and business partners. Nevertheless, it's virtually impossible to develop a DRM that provides a satisfactory solution for all parties -- artists, rights owners, manufacturers, service providers, and customers of mobile services.
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