European managers expect higher mobile speeds to
build better customer relationships -- and vendors say this is imminent. But
rollout will occur slowly and unevenly, forcing firms to adopt these new
technologies in stages. In a new Report, Forrester Research B.V. (Nasdaq: FORR)
outlines how companies must act on new mobile opportunities to serve customers
better, strengthen ties with partners, and boost internal productivity while
hedging their bets on shaky technologies.
"Hype from vendors like Nokia and operators like
Orange says that European firms will get 2 Mbps speeds on mobile devices and
connect anywhere at anytime -- all by 2002," explains Lars Godell, analyst
for Forrester Research B.V. "The reality is that gradual, uneven bandwidth
upgrades will creep along through 2007 and only city areas will see 2 Mbps
speeds by 2007."
Forrester believes that Europe's high-speed mobile
future will be enabled by a series of new mobile network technologies like
General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) and Universal Mobile Telecommunications
System (UMTS). These technologies will transform the way corporations serve
customers, reach business partners, and communicate internally -- but only after
they are widely standardized and implemented.
"To increase mobile speeds and global connectivity,
new technologies are being developed, including always-on packet-switched
connections and Bluetooth, a short-range radio technology that allows high-speed
communication between devices and networks," added Godell. "The
benefits these technologies offer will arrive later than promised for a number
of reasons, mainly because operators will not be able to justify the huge
investments needed to build an entirely new mobile network. Shaky standards and
incompatible handsets will also give early adopters a bumpy ride."
Forrester believes that only technologies requiring
minimal upgrades to existing networks and handsets, like High-Speed Circuit
Switched Data (HSCSD), GPRS, and Bluetooth, will see widespread adoption before
2005. Operators and firms that adopt HSCSD this year will enjoy first-mover
advantages, while riskier network technologies like Enhanced Data Rate for GSM
Evolution (EDGE) will fade away, and UMTS will arrive late.
With a patchwork of high-speed mobile standards
persisting over the next seven years, European firms face a dilemma. If they act
too late, they will miss opportunities to mobilize business processes and reach
customers in new ways. If they act too soon, they risk being burned by premature
commitments to immature technologies. To cope, firms must match mobile data
projects to technology realities in three stages. Firms should start in 2000 by
experimenting and laying the groundwork.
For the Report "Mobile's High-Speed Hurdles,"
Forrester spoke with 47 corporate IT managers as well as 46 mobile operators,
telecommunications equipment suppliers, software houses, and systems
integrators. When asked when they will roll out high-speed mobile data services
as part of their business, 53% of executives interviewed said that it would
depend on market readiness, while 19% said that they might not use it.
Forrester Research is the leading independent Internet
research firm, analyzing technology change and its impact on business, consumers,
and society. Forrester's "Whole View" of the Internet economy enables
clients to weave together Internet commerce initiatives with eBusiness
technology to satisfy customers' changing needs. Clients receive continuous
research and analysis through Forrester's unique eResearch(TM) Reports, an array
of advisory services, bit products, and topical events. Established in 1983,
Forrester is headquartered in Cambridge, Mass. Forrester's European Research
Center is located in Amsterdam, Netherlands, and its UK Research Centre is
located in London. Additional information about Forrester Research can be found
at www.forrester.com.
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