Flash cards and hard disk drives (HDDs) will clash in consumer device markets through the next decade, according to research just published jointly by TrendFOCUS (www.trendfocus.com), a Los Altos, California-based market intelligence firm, and the Institute of Information Technology (IIT, www.iit.co.jp) of Tokyo, Japan. MP3 players, digital still and video cameras, PDAs, and mobile phones are a few of the markets that will be hotly contested by suppliers of flash and small HDDs.
"Consumer devices will be the battleground between flash and small HDDs," states Noboru Kubokawa, Managing Director of IIT. "1.8" and 1" HDDs are much cheaper than flash, and have improved ruggedness and reliability. Almost any device that currently uses flash can potentially use a small HDD." Market analysis by IIT and TrendFOCUS disclosed that over 12 million flash products were sold into the digital camera market in 2000. The consumer market for small storage devices like flash, HDDs, and optical will grow 70% annually through 2005.
Rising demand and the need for more storage capacity is drawing the interest of the HDD industry. "IBM, the pioneer of the 1" HDD, and several other companies are eyeing the digital camera and MP3 markets," adds Mark Geenen, President of TrendFOCUS. "We expect more companies will enter the small HDD field, which will ultimately drive down prices of storage and end-user devices."
The long-term trend favors HDDs in many consumer applications. The emergence of high-resolution, full-motion video cameras, high-capacity MP3 players, and wireless-enabled PDAs plays into the strengths of HDDs. "Consumer device capacity requirements will spiral upward in the coming years, and HDDs are far better suited to higher-capacity needs," states Geenen. Prices for 1" HDDs will fall dramatically starting in 2002, further extending the price/performance leadership of HDDs.
"But Flash makers will fight to hold share -- consumer devices are the critical market," added Kubokawa. "Regardless of which storage technology wins, the consumer wins with better device functionality, higher storage capacity, and lower prices."
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