Speaking at GartnerGroup's European Symposium/ITxpo '99 conference in Cannes, analysts today mapped out their vision of how the explosion of mobile phone adoption is set to rewrite the rules for E-commerce. Analysts said that while the United States is focusing on the PC and TV set-top boxes as the principal channels for business to consumer E-commerce, consumers outside the US have been adopting mobile telephones. This trend is particularly clear in Europe, where mobile phone adoption outweighs Internet adoption at a ratio of 4:1, and GartnerGroup predicted this is where Europe will not only catch up, but also leapfrog the US in embracing E-commerce.
Mobile phone adoption is growing at a breathtaking speed across Europe and according to GartnerGroup analysts, mobile phone penetration in Europe will exceed an average of 60 percent of the population by 2004. The large number of mobile phone users combined with the emergence of new wireless technologies such as Bluetooth, WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) and common mobile device operating systems represent entirely new opportunities in mobile E-commerce both via Web enabled and direct consumer to business models during the next 36 months.
GartnerGroup predicted that by 2004, at least 40 percent of business to consumer E-commerce transactions outside North America will be initiated from portable, cellular-enabled devices.
Peter Richardson, Principal Analyst at GartnerGroup's Dataquest said to delegates at the conference, "Europe is close to a turning point in the way users view E-commerce and how they want to access e-mail and information services." He said the necessary drivers are in place for mobile devices to pave the way.
Analysts explained that WAP technology represents the mobile passport to the Internet, performing as a micro browser and customising web content for small display on the mobile phone. The company's latest forecasts show that over 95 percent of new mobile phones shipped in 2004 will be WAP-enabled.
While WAP utilises the Internet, Nigel Deighton, Research Director, GartnerGroup, pointed to Bluetooth as another major groundbreaker in the mobile E-commerce story. Bluetooth is a wireless technology designed to provide mobile devices with an easy to use, short-range connectivity solution. Deighton said, "This represents a completely new dimension to E-commerce, which will radically change how portable and wireless devices are viewed and used. It provides endless opportunities for applications such as vending and ticketing machines, point-of-sale terminals, banking machines and parking meters.
GartnerGroup predicts that more than 75 percent of new handsets shipped in 2004 will be Bluetooth-enabled and said it will be one of the biggest drivers in the adoption of E-commerce in Europe. Deighton urged companies to evaluate Bluetooth not just as a cable replacement tool, but also as a real generator of new E-commerce opportunities.
GartnerGroup suggested that the success of the mobile phone in Europe can be explained by the three U's: Ubiquity, Utility and Usability. Neither the PC nor the TV passes these criteria. In fact, GartnerGroup predicted that the volume of annual shipments of portable Internet-enabled devices would exceed that of PCs in 2003.
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