WAP Device Markets to Boom

The wireless handset market will continue to provide ample opportunities for device makers. There seems to be no slowdown in the growth of wireless services and, in turn, wireless access devices. As the market continues to evolve, terminal makers who miss the latest incarnation of what wireless service means may also miss their chance to stay competitive in the market. Wireless Access Protocol Ðbased devices will become the next big thing, as operators try to take a better incremental total from the average subscriber.

Terminal vendors will also push WAP-enabled access as it opens a new world of devices which will allow innovation to reach a new level as the familiar wireless voice device will have to incorporate data. Those producing the most effective and efficient handsets will win significant market share.

There will be over 500 million WAP-based handsets shipped from 2000 to 2005. Although WAP is the new buzz word for the wireless industry, the old buzz word, digital, and the even older buzz word, analog, will still be important to handset makers. Both types of devices will be shipped continuously throughout the next decade as digital and analog voice access will still be the number one application for wireless users. The digital/dual-mode handset marketplace will realize a 29% CAAG (compound annual average growth) from 2000 to 2005. Analog-only users will dwindle from 34% of all users in 1998 to 5% in 2005.

Other wireless access devices will also see growth, but the market for smartphones and handhelds will be relatively small when compared to wireless handsets. Two important factors in growth in the handset market are persistent high churn rates as well as the habit of users to by the latest, greatest handset model, making replacement handsets a lucrative part of the overall handset market.

The number of voice-only users will continue to grow at a fast pace while voice and data users will not increase at the great rates predicted by many. Still, vendors will build WAP-enabled handsets with large growth numbers in mind.

Complementing the wireless movement is the personal/commercial vehicle access market, which now consists of fleet management systems (FMS), in-vehicle navigation systems, and in-vehicle information systems (IVIS), as seen from GM and ATX Technologies. The US IVIS market, for example, will realize a CAAG of 100% for shipments from 1998 to 2005. The US FMS market will realize a CAAG of 30% for shipments from 1998 to 2005. The Japanese market for IVNS will see a CAAG of 53% for shipments from 1998 to 2005. Wherever one looks, all three markets are responding rapidly to the decline in digital component prices, the development of efficient applications and an increase in mobile value-added services.

The global markets for handsets - digital, analog, dual-mode, WAP-enabled, handsets in use, new handsets and replacement handsets - as well as smartphones and handhelds are explored in Wireless Access Devices, a soon-to-be published study from ABI. The global market for voice, data and voice/data subscribers is also dissected as is the global market for internet subscribers and laptop users. ABI also defines global markets for FMS, IVNS and IVIS in the report.


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